How will be the next winter?
What can be expected in the summer?

Such or similar questions have probably already made a lot of people. Can we look forward to cold, snowy winter months or a lot of hot days for swimming in summer ? Is there a risk of high heating costs druring the cold season or will be the next summer very cool and rainy?

The author of these pages would like these questions try to answer as precisely as possible and to bring visitors to the issue of long-term prognosis with their problems in more detail.

Beside the long-term trends for Germany you can find long-range forecasts for some selected stations around the world. Also there are available climate reviews and extreme values of past months and seasons as well as current weather data of the private weather station from Leipzig.

Thematic Introduction

All weather prognoses which go beyond 10 days are called long range forecasts. However, no specific weather can be created for a particular day, but only a general and large-scale weather trend for a longer period, for example, a month or a season. It must be noted that this by no means is an undisputed area for long-term forecasts, but this is still not the object of much discussion. Further explanation can be found on the information page.

The topic of long range weather forecasting were especially investigated by Franz Baur, a former german pioneer of this area, who had published a multiplicity of statistical weather rules. As far as it is possible I also try to include these rules into the forecasts.

The hit probability of the monthly forecasts which are published here amounts around 65 - 70 % and for seasonal forecasts around 75 % at present. Similarly, the predictions are constantly verified and evaluated on an accuracy. The link to the detailed verification can be found on the forecast page.

For the forecasts are especially used two different methods:

a) First is to calculate the expected temperature and precipitation deviation of a month / a year by means of pressure and temperature distributions over certain significant areas in the northern hemisphere from 8 previous months (LRFS = Long Range Forecast System). Predictions for Germany an different parts of the world.
These calculations are carried out using a statistical log process and are updated at the end of a month. The prediction method used has been revised several times over the years and is described in detail.
b) Furthermore, an alternative and independent from LRFS model "European Analogy System" (EAS) has been developed with a European long-term forecast of pressure and temperature fields is to be achieved. However, since the effort is somewhat larger for this, the update is only every 2 - 3 Months. Since the effort is somewhat larger for this, the update is only every 2 - 3 months.
In addition specific statistical rules (e.g. sunspot statistics) ared used to complement the temperature and precipitation forecast.

Notes / Supporters

ATTENTION: The number of visitors to these sites has increased steadily in recent years, which demonstrates the great interest of seasonal forecasts. The published information are free and will remain so for the future. However, since the amount of work it is not insignificant, and I am pursuing this work only in passing, I would appreciate a voluntary donation.
For the owner of a PayPal account there are a simple way:

Or to conventional ways:

1. Log in to your PayPal account.
2. Go to "Send money".
3. Enter the e-mail address lars_thieme (ätt) and you can decide about the value of the informations you can find here
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