Long range weather forecasts

The column "forecast" indicates the probably meteorological trend compared with the average values (new period: 1981 - 2010) in the next months. The long-term temperature forecasts are divided into the following 5 classes (precipitation forecasts in 3 classes):

Very cold Cold Normal Mild Very mild
Dry Normal Wet

The definition of the respective classes is described in more detail on this page. In the right column there is a prediction plot for each month. It characterizes the approximately expected deviations from the mean, but it should serve only as a rough guide.

According to the described method the following table shows the long range weather trend for the next four months, particularly for eastern and central Germany:
Logo Langfristwetter


Seasonal trend

Remark: The calculated forecast for a season (e.g. spring) does not result from the arithmetic mean of the forecasts for the three individual months (e.g. Jan, Febr, Mar). It is an independently determined value and therefore it can differ slightly from the average of the monthly forecasts.

Saisonale Prognose
Forecast: January 2018
Prognosekarte Deutschland

Climatic review

The December 2017 had a temperature of 3.9 °C in Leipzig-Gruenau and thus by +2.0 K too mild and a precipitation amount of 41 mm relatively normal (105 %) compared with the average values (1981 - 2010).

At the official stations of the cities Leipzig, Magdeburg, Erfurt, Potsdam und Dresden the average temperature had a value of 3.2 °C which means a deviation from +2.1 K in relation to the period of 1981 - 2010.

  • Meteorological research January 2018
  • Weather report of last month
  • Verification forecast of the last month

    Verifikation letzter Monat


    Further verifications of accuracy of all prognoses you can find on this page.

    Worldwide forecasts

    The described method of forecasting (EOF + logistic regression) for Germany could also be extended to other areas of the Northern Hemisphere now. This was only possible by programing automation of the procedure. For this some stations with homogeneous datasets around Europe (De Bilt, Vienna, Oslo, Moscow) and Nord America (New York) were chosen for test purposes. Meanwhile threre are used grids data from different parts of Europe to get a prediction for the whole continent. More information of the forecasting method can you find here (german). Because of the expended work only seasonal forecasts are published every third month. The calculated deviations refer to the observation period of 1961 - 2010.

    For comparison with the real development a verification site is available now.

    For WINTER 2017 / 18 (Dec + Jan + Feb) the following temperature trends are expected:

    Europeanwide Forecast 

    © by Lars Thieme and Langfristwetter.com / Last update: 02.01.2018